By Adrian Chugg, Managing Partner, William Buck SA
The March 2026 quarter Survey of Business Expectations shows how quickly conditions have tightened for South Australian businesses. Confidence has nosedived, general business conditions and sales are weaker, and profitability is under real pressure.
That lines up with conversations we are having with clients. Businesses are not dealing with one cost increase; they are facing another wave of inflation and uncertainty after several tough years.
The recent turmoil in the Middle East is in some ways the straw that broke the camel’s back for many businesses struggling with margin pressure and an uncertain business environment. The first hit came through supply issues, surcharges and freight costs. The second wave is harder to measure: what higher fuel and fertiliser costs mean for manufacturing inputs, distribution and the broader cost of goods over time. Once costs rise, they rarely reduce to their original levels.
That is why margin pressure is such a big story this quarter. Many businesses have absorbed higher costs for as long as they can, but as they close out this financial year and plan for the next, pricing conversations are becoming unavoidable. The hardest part is working out whether customers will accept further price rise, delay spending or look elsewhere.
The recent Federal Budget also matters and has quickly become the main topic of conversation where 99% of discussions now focus on it, making fuel concerns old news. Business owners are looking at government spending, increasingly complicated tax settings and new compliance obligations and asking a fair question: who ultimately pays? Too often, the answer is business, through higher costs, more administration and less time spent actually running and building the business.
Confidence is not only about today’s trading conditions. It is also about whether owners believe the rules are stable enough to invest, employ and take risks. Confidence was already fragile with businesses navigating the fuel shock and inflation concerns. At the time of this survey, there was also a great deal of uncertainty in relation to what the upcoming federal budget contained, and this absolutely added to the negative outlook.
That kind of uncertainty damages decision-making. When a business is considering capital expenditure, hiring, automation, product development or entering a new market, uncertainty gives them a reason to pause. Once something is paused, it does not always restart quickly, and that delay flows through to others.
Cash flow is already front of mind. The survey showed most businesses are reviewing it at least weekly, with many checking it daily. That level of focus is alarming, reflecting the pressure many are feeling.
We are not yet seeing broad-based staff cuts, which is important. Many businesses are still trying to hold on to capability, even as employment expectations weaken. Resilience is being tested, and in a tight labour market, once good people are lost, they are not easy to replace.
This is where strategy and planning matter. In this uncertain environment, strength will come from businesses with a clear strategic plan, understanding where margin is being lost, protecting cash flow and making deliberate decisions before pressure turns into crisis.
For a detailed breakdown of the March 2026 quarter results, visit https://sabusinesschamber.com.au/SOBE
